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AI & reasoning9 min read

What I Learned From a Few Days With the Mythos Class

A frontier model's access was revoked overnight. What it built in a few days — and why the method, not the model, is the part that lasts.

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I was disappointed to wake this morning to find that my access to the Mythos Class of AI models had been suspended by an export-control directive issued by the United States Government.

That disappointment was not merely about losing access to a powerful model. It was about losing access to a capability class I had only just begun to test.

Most of the attention around frontier agentic AI has focused on software: autonomous coding, automated delivery pipelines, large-scale refactoring, enterprise systems migration, and the kind of infrastructure work that ordinarily requires coordinated engineering teams.

The examples are striking. A model takes a single product brief and returns a working full-stack application. It migrates a legacy codebase. It generates tests, debugs failures, repairs CI pipelines, writes documentation, and iterates until the build passes. It does not merely answer a question; it plans, delegates, executes, checks, and revises.

That is a profound shift.

But I wanted to test a harder question: whether the same capability could be deployed outside software — in a specialised reasoning discipline where the output is not code but judgement, exercised autonomously, and without having to be coddled by a human at every turn.

The Problem

There is a well-founded fear of AI in legal work. Used carelessly, AI is not merely unreliable; it fails fluently and convincingly. A nervous junior solicitor at least has the good grace to hesitate before citing a case that does not exist; the model supplies it with serene confidence, correct citation format and all.

A hallucinated case looks like a real case. A misstated principle looks like doctrine. The surface form is often immaculate, even when the substance is wrong.

Consider researcher Damien Charlotin’s database, which now records hundreds of legal decisions involving AI-hallucinated content — recent reporting places the figure above 700 court decisions, with roughly nine in ten handed down in 2025 alone.

That is not a marginal defect to be patched in the next release. It is a category of professional risk in its own right — one that attaches to the practitioner, not to the tool.

So the question is not whether AI can produce something that sounds legal. It plainly can. A little Latin, some well-placed legalese, a citation rendered in immaculate format — and the artefact looks the part. The harder question is whether that surface can be made to track the truth.

The Old Framework

Over the past few months, I had been building a customised legal-AI toolkit using earlier frontier models — primarily Opus 4.8 and GPT 5.5.

The goal was not generic legal drafting. It was a controlled legal-reasoning and drafting environment.

I connected the models to corpora of real legal documents, original judgment texts, and authoritative legal databases. I built citation-verification workflows; structured drafting conventions; register controls intended to hold a consistent voice; and simulated adversarial pressure-testing, in which the system was made to argue against its own output.

Legal reasoning proved more difficult. Simply prompting the use of the IRAC method taught in many Australian law schools was insufficient. Over many sessions, iterations, and manual reconfigurations, I developed a system that applied neurosymbolic logic to legal reasoning. It sought to combine the natural-language processing of large language models — the neural layer — with the rigid, rule-based logic of formal legal codes — the symbolic layer — to reduce both hallucination and black-box reasoning.

It could produce serious legal argument. It could reason through procedural issues. It could verify authorities when directed properly. It could approximate my drafting register with a fidelity that would have seemed implausible a year ago.

But it remained brittle.

Register drift persisted. Evidence became contaminated. Cross-references broke. Legal propositions were, at times, overstated. Most seriously, material issues were missed at an alarming rate. The system “worked” in a basic sense, but it worked because I was constantly correcting it — refining prompts, adjusting context, rewriting skills, rerouting workflows, and catching failures after they had appeared.

Then Came the Mythos Class

The Mythos generation represented something different.

I had heard the software use cases: multi-day autonomous tasks, ready-to-ship systems from a single prompt, 3D modelling of humanoid robotics, and the rest. I wanted to know whether the same pattern could be brought to legal reasoning.

The Experiment

I began with a single, detailed prompt that prescribed the fixed features of the approach: research, simulated testing under controlled conditions, looped iteration, and clear success criteria. Testing was to be rigorous and unforgiving. I instructed the use of mutation tests: fabricated citations, real authorities cited for the wrong proposition, truncated quotations, arithmetic traps, procedural-power traps, and unsupported factual assertions. The brief was specific and exacting; within the non-negotiables, however, I authorised the model to exercise its own discretion.

From that single prompt, the Fable model carried out a multi-day, autonomous task without requiring one further instruction from me. Its approach ran as follows.

Problem identification, analysis, and research. The research ran in two parts. The first was a general identification of the failure modes of AI in legal work — hallucinated authority, register drift, contaminated evidence, and missed issues — together with the methods proposed to contain them. The second was a granular critical analysis and audit of my existing framework: a mechanism-by-mechanism examination of where the neurosymbolic toolkit failed, and why, so that each weakness was traced to a specific cause rather than treated as one diffuse fault.

A new framework established. From that analysis it specified an architecture rather than a prompt: a set of components sitting over a shared, inspectable state.

Experimental parameters and conditions designed and enforced. It fixed the success criteria in advance and built the conditions under which the framework would be tested. Mechanical screens — deterministic checks — were erected as hard gates: any output that failed a screen did not proceed. Evaluation was blinded wherever judgement, rather than a deterministic rule, was the measure of success.

Simulated testing. It ran the framework against the full mutation battery, and against an instantiated opposing case constructed to attack its own arguments.

Assessment of results and identification of problems. It logged each defect, traced it to the component responsible, and isolated the cause rather than the symptom.

Looped testing and reiteration until the success criteria were met. It repaired, re-ran, and repeated — promoting each improvement one mechanism at a time.

The finished framework had eight components: orchestration, rule formalisation, research, argument graphing, drafting, verification, adversarial simulation, and benchmarking. Beneath them sat a state spine — a case file, a rule register, an authority ledger, an evidence map, an argument graph, and a paragraph trace.

What I was hardwiring, at last, was a set of standing rules. Every authority must be grounded before it is used. Every rule must be decomposed before it is applied. Every material factual assertion must trace to evidence. Every argument must be tested against an instantiated opposing case. Every draft must pass deterministic screens wherever deterministic checks are possible. Every evaluation must be blinded wherever judgement is involved. Every defect must be logged. And every improvement must be promoted mechanism by mechanism, on evidence — never on the strength of a good feeling.

Access to the model that powered the new system is now gone.

But the work it produced remains: a method, a benchmark, a defect log, and a clearer view of what agentic AI may become in specialised reasoning work.

What Transfers

A method, unlike a model, cannot be withdrawn by directive — and this one was never really about law.

What the framework encodes is a general discipline for any domain in which the work product is judgement, the cost of fluent error is high, and the reasoning must survive scrutiny after the fact. Strip out the legal vocabulary and what remains is a procedure: ground every claim before it is used; decompose every rule before it is applied; trace every material assertion to evidence; test every position against its strongest opponent; screen mechanically where a deterministic check exists; blind the evaluation where it does not; log every defect; and improve one mechanism at a time. None of that is peculiar to litigation.

Three fields make the point.

Clinical informatics. A decision-support tool that fabricates a contraindication, misreads a guideline, or quietly drops a comorbidity fails in precisely the way a hallucinated authority fails — plausibly, and at the point of greatest consequence. The same architecture answers it: the authorities, here the guidelines and the evidence base, grounded before use; assertions traced to the record; deterministic screens on whatever is checkable, such as dosage, interaction, and units; blinded review where clinical judgement is irreducible; and a defect log that converts each near miss into a permanent correction rather than a remembered anecdote.

Quality assurance and accreditation. Quality systems live or die on the auditable trail — the capacity to show not merely that a conclusion was reached, but how, on what evidence, and against which standard. A reasoning system built to trace every assertion to its source and to log every defect is, in effect, an accreditation instrument: it produces the evidence map and the corrective-action record as a by-product of doing the work, rather than reconstructing them under audit pressure after the fact.

Business transformation. Change programmes fail less often for want of ideas than for want of disciplined reasoning under uncertainty — assumptions left untested, options never put against their strongest counter-case, decisions taken on the strength of a good feeling and unrecoverable six months later because no one recorded why. The same spine applies: decompose the problem, ground each assumption, instantiate the opposing case, screen what can be screened, and keep a defect log of what went wrong and what was changed in response. The output is not a slide deck. It is a defensible decision trail.

The common thread is accountability. In each field the danger is identical — a confident answer that cannot be checked — and the remedy is identical: a system that cannot reach a conclusion without showing its working.

The future is not AI as an oracle — legal, clinical, or managerial.

It is AI as a disciplined reasoning system, held to account at every step.

And that is far more interesting.

Transformation6 min read

Quantifying Transformation: If You Cannot Measure It, You Did Not Manage It

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Every transformation programme is a success. Ask the steering committee, read the closing deck, note the celebratory email. Then ask a harder question — by how much, compared to what, and how do you know — and the room goes quiet.

This is the central embarrassment of the transformation industry. Enormous sums are committed to change, and remarkably few programmes can demonstrate, in numbers, that the change occurred and that it was the programme that caused it. Success is asserted, not evidenced; attributed by anecdote; and declared at exactly the moment — go-live — when nothing has yet been proven.

The failure is not one of ambition or effort. It is a failure of measurement, and it has identifiable causes.

Why transformation resists measurement

Outcomes lag. The benefits of a new operating model or system arrive quarters after the work, by which time a dozen other things have changed and the causal thread is lost.

Baselines move, or were never taken. You cannot show improvement against a starting point you did not record, yet teams routinely begin changing the thing before measuring it.

Activity is mistaken for outcome. “Ninety per cent of staff trained” and “fourteen workshops delivered” are output metrics — they measure motion, not result. They are reported because they are available and flattering, not because they answer the question.

And the incentives are wrong. The people who must declare the programme a success are the people who ran it. Few measurement systems survive contact with that conflict.

A measurement discipline

Quantifying transformation is not exotic. It requires importing, into change programmes, the ordinary discipline of an experiment.

Define the outcome in advance, in numbers. Before anything is built, state what will be different and how it will be measured — cost-to-serve, cycle time, rework rate, retention. A benefit that cannot be named in advance cannot be claimed afterwards.

Baseline before you touch anything. Measure the current state, with its natural variation, for long enough to know what normal looks like. The baseline is not bureaucracy; it is the only thing against which the result will mean anything.

Separate leading from lagging indicators. Lagging indicators, such as cost and attrition, confirm success late. Leading indicators, such as first-pass yield, queue age, and adoption depth, move early and tell you whether the lagging numbers are coming. A programme instrumented only on lagging metrics learns it has failed a year too late to act.

Build a counterfactual. This is the step most often skipped and the one that does the real work. Improvement means nothing unless it can be distinguished from what would have happened anyway. A staged rollout supplies this almost for free: units not yet migrated are a control group, and the difference between migrated and not-yet-migrated units over the same period is the closest thing to a clean read of the programme’s effect.

Instrument continuously, not at the end. Measurement built in from the start catches drift while it is still cheap to correct. Measurement bolted on at closeout is archaeology.

Keep a decision log. Record each significant choice and why it was made. Six months on, when a number moves, the log is what lets you say which decision moved it — and when a number disappoints, it is what stops the post-mortem from dissolving into blame.

Put the measurement beyond the programme’s reach

The incentive problem cannot be solved by good intentions; it has to be solved by structure. The measurement should be owned by someone who does not report to the programme and is not rewarded for its success — a finance partner, an independent analytics function, an audit line. The delivery team defines what good looks like and commits to it in advance; someone else holds the ruler. This is not a vote of no confidence in the team. It is the only arrangement under which a favourable result is believable to the people being asked to act on it, and an unfavourable one is allowed to surface while there is still time to respond.

An illustrative programme

Consider a national services organisation rolling out a new operating model across nine regional units in three waves. The figures here are illustrative.

Because the rollout was staged, the six units not yet migrated formed a running control. In the first wave, cost-to-serve in migrated units fell 17% against a 3% drift in the control over the same period — the gap, not the headline 17%, is the programme’s actual contribution. Average case cycle time fell from 14.2 days to 9.1. The rework rate halved, from 12% to 5%.

The leading indicator earned its place. First-pass yield moved within six weeks of each wave and predicted the cost-to-serve improvement roughly a quarter ahead, which let the programme forecast benefit rather than wait for it — and, in the second wave, catch a configuration error in a single unit before it reached the lagging numbers at all.

The uncomfortable corollary

A real measurement system will, sometimes, tell you the programme did not work. That is not a defect of the approach. It is the entire point. The discipline that lets you prove success is the same discipline that lets you detect failure early enough to stop, correct, or redirect — before the next wave, the next region, the next year of spend. An organisation that cannot countenance a measurement that could embarrass it has not commissioned a measurement system. It has commissioned applause.

Transformation without measurement is theatre: expensive, well-attended, and impossible to evaluate. The number is not a bureaucratic imposition on the work. It is the only honest feedback the programme will ever get — and the only basis on which anyone should be asked to fund the next one.

Clinical7 min read

A Clinical Informatics Automation Experiment: Designing for the Error That Harms

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The wrong question to ask of automation in clinical informatics is whether the system is accurate. The right question is what its errors are made of. A model that is 95% accurate is reassuring until you learn that the 5% it gets wrong includes the silent, high-risk failures that reach a patient. Accuracy is an average. Safety lives in the tail.

So when we set out to test whether an agentic system could automate a clinical-informatics task, we designed the experiment around the failure that matters, not the accuracy that markets well. The task was medication reconciliation at admission: detecting discrepancies between a patient’s documented medication history and the admission record — omissions, duplications, dose mismatches, and look-alike substitutions. It is high-volume, error-prone, and consequential, which is to say representative. The experiment, dataset, and figures described here are illustrative.

The design

We built a constructed evaluation set of 2,400 reconciliation cases. Into it we planted 360 high-risk discrepancies — the dose errors, omitted anticoagulants, and confusable drug names that cause actual harm — so that the dangerous cases were present in known number and could be scored directly rather than estimated. A panel of clinical pharmacists established the reference standard.

Four design choices did the real work.

First, pre-registered success criteria. We fixed the thresholds before running anything, and we did not set them on accuracy alone. The binding criterion was a ceiling on missed high-risk discrepancies — the failure we were unwilling to tolerate — not a headline sensitivity figure.

Second, mechanical screens. Wherever a check could be made deterministic, it was, and it was placed as a hard gate the output had to pass: dose-unit plausibility, formulary existence, and known-interaction flags. Anything failing a screen was stopped and surfaced, never passed through on the model’s say-so.

Third, blinding. The clinical reviewers who rated each flag for clinical actionability did not know whether it had been produced by the system or by a human reconciler. Blinding removed the automation bias — in both directions — that contaminates most evaluations of this kind.

Fourth, adversarial cases. Beyond the planted discrepancies, we included truncated entries, free-text drug names, and deliberately confusable pairs, to probe the failure surface rather than flatter the system on clean data.

The results

On the headline metrics the system performed well: sensitivity of 0.94 and specificity of 0.91 for discrepancy detection. Had we stopped there, we would have declared victory and learned nothing useful.

The metric that governed the decision was the high-risk miss rate. With the mechanical screens active, the system missed 1.9% of planted high-risk discrepancies. With the screens disabled — the model reasoning alone — that figure rose to 6.7%. The screens were not a refinement; they were the difference between a deployable system and an unsafe one, and they worked precisely because they caught the dangerous-but-checkable cases that the model, left to itself, waved through with confidence.

The blinded panel rated system-originated flags as clinically actionable in 88% of cases, against 90% for human-originated flags — a difference within noise, and the closest thing the experiment produced to a claim of parity. For context, an unaided clinician baseline working under realistic time pressure missed high-risk discrepancies in 9% of cases, which is the standard the automation must actually be measured against, rather than an idealised clinician who does not exist on a busy admissions ward.

What the defect log revealed

The most valuable output was not a number but the defect log. Nearly every residual high-risk miss clustered in one place: non-standard free-text entries that the extraction layer mishandled. That is an actionable finding. It points to a targeted fix — improving structured capture upstream and adding a screen for unparsed free text — rather than a vague instruction to make the model better. A failure surface that is characterised is a failure surface that can be engineered against. A failure surface hidden behind an accuracy average cannot be.

A governance question, not a technical one

Read this way, the experiment is an instrument of clinical governance rather than a software benchmark. The pre-registered safety ceiling is a risk-tolerance decision that belongs to clinicians and quality leaders, not to engineers; the mechanical screens are documented controls; the blinded audit is the evidence that the control still holds; and the defect log functions as a post-deployment surveillance system, the informatics analogue of pharmacovigilance. None of these artefacts is optional once a system touches patient care, and each is a by-product of running the experiment properly rather than an additional burden bolted on afterwards.

The deployment implication

None of this licenses unattended automation, and the experiment was never meant to. What it supports is a specific, bounded deployment posture: the system as a first-pass reconciler whose flags are confirmed by a clinician; mechanical screens standing as non-negotiable gates; ongoing blinded audit rather than a one-off validation; and a defect log maintained in production, so that each new failure mode becomes a permanent correction instead of a recurring surprise.

The lesson generalises beyond medication reconciliation. Automation earns its place in clinical informatics not by being clever but by being accountable and bounded — by knowing where it fails, how often, and whether the failures are the kind that harm. The experiment is not an obstacle to deployment. It is the price of being allowed to deploy at all, and the only honest basis on which a clinician should be asked to trust the thing.

Governance5 min read

The Mental Health Levy: A Promise the State Could Not Account For

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A tax is a promise. When a government hypothecates a levy — when it tells the public that this particular impost exists for this particular purpose — it makes a representation that the money raised will reach the purpose named. The Queensland Mental Health Levy, introduced on 1 January 2023 to fund mental health services, made exactly such a promise. On 22 May 2026 the Queensland Audit Office reported that the State had built almost nothing capable of keeping it.

The findings are not a matter of tone or interpretation. The Queensland Audit Office found that effective governance arrangements were not established when the levy was introduced. The Auditor-General found no reliable mechanism by which the State could confirm that levy funds were actually being directed to mental health purposes, and no systematic evaluation of whether the money spent delivered the benefits the levy was meant to secure. A separate internal Queensland Health review found that several announced initiatives had not been funded, that levy revenue was applied to programmes characterised as out of scope, and that many projects were significantly delayed with their funding deferred. Media reporting has described the consequence as the mismanagement of hundreds of millions of dollars. That figure is a characterisation, not an audited number, and it should be read as one. The governance failure underneath it requires no exaggeration to be serious.

The two questions a hypothecated levy must answer

Strip away the politics and a hypothecated levy reduces to two questions that any competent system must be able to answer at any time. Did the money go where it was promised? Did spending it achieve what it was for? These are not advanced questions. They are the floor. They are the difference between a fund and a slogan.

On the audited record, Queensland could answer neither. The first question — did the money arrive — requires that funds be ring-fenced and tracked, that someone be able to trace a dollar from collection to a mental health outcome and certify the journey. The absence of a mechanism to confirm that funds reached their purpose is not a paperwork gap. It is the absence of the control that gives the promise meaning. A levy without that control is indistinguishable, in operation, from general revenue wearing a more sympathetic name.

The second question — did it work — requires evaluation: a defined set of intended benefits, indicators capable of registering progress towards them, and an assessment, conducted against those indicators, of whether the benefits materialised. None of that was systematically in place. And here the principle is unforgiving. If you cannot measure it, you did not manage it. Spending that is never evaluated is not investment. It is expenditure with a story attached, and the story is the only evidence it was ever asked to produce.

Unmeasured, ungoverned, by design of omission

This is the textbook failure that a measurement-and-governance discipline exists precisely to prevent. The discipline is not exotic. It is a century old in public finance, older still in any enterprise that has had to account for money it did not raise itself. You name an owner. You ring-fence the funds. You instrument the spending. You evaluate the outcome against the purpose. You do these things at the outset, because retrofitting governance onto money already spent recovers nothing — it merely documents the loss. The failure in Queensland was not that the wrong controls were chosen. It is that the controls were not built. A system was announced and a structure was not.

It is worth being precise about why this matters beyond the ledger. A levy is collected from people who were told what it was for. The mental health levy was sold on a purpose that commands near-universal public sympathy, and that sympathy is exactly why the governance around it should have been tighter, not looser. Causes that are easy to defend are the ones most easily invoked to wave money through. The more unimpeachable the purpose, the greater the obligation to prove the money served it — because the purpose will otherwise be made to do the work that evidence should do. Sympathy is not a control. It is the thing that controls are there to discipline.

What good would have looked like

None of this is hindsight, and the remedy is not mysterious. Good would have looked like four things, all available on day one.

First, ring-fenced funds with named ownership. Levy revenue held separately, traceable from collection to application, with an accountable officer answerable for its direction — not a committee in which responsibility dissolves, but a person who can be asked the question and is expected to have the answer.

Second, a governance structure stood up at inception. A coordinated, whole-of-system arrangement defining who decides what the money funds, against what criteria, with what authority to refuse a use that falls outside scope. Out-of-scope spending is not an accident that befalls a well-governed fund. It is what occurs when nothing is empowered to say no.

Third, leading and lagging indicators. Measures that show, early, whether committed initiatives are actually being delivered, and measures that show, later, whether the intended benefits to Queenslanders materialised. Indicators turn a promise into something falsifiable. A fund that cannot be proved to have failed can never be shown to have worked.

Fourth, independent evaluation beyond the reach of those who ran the programme. Assessment of outcomes conducted by parties with no stake in the verdict, reporting to someone other than the spenders. An organisation that cannot countenance a measurement that could embarrass it has not commissioned a measurement system. It has commissioned applause. The point of independence is that it permits the embarrassing answer, which is the only kind worth paying for.

The current government has signalled that it will tighten oversight and re-focus levy spending on frontline services. That is the correct direction, and the test of it will be ordinary and exacting: ring-fencing, named ownership, indicators, independent evaluation, applied from the first dollar of the next phase rather than narrated after the last. The lesson Queensland has now paid to learn is not that mental health funding is hard to govern. It is that governance is not a feature added to spending once the spending is comfortable. It is the condition on which the spending was ever entitled to be called a fund. Build it first, or do not make the promise.

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